800,000 Brands Chasing 10,000 Creators

TL;DR

• Riley Garcia puts it at 800,000 brands and 8,000 to 10,000 L3-plus creators, calling the arithmetic lopsided, and the registered figure checks out at 803,500.
• His "let's call it 400,000 active" was close, since roughly 370,000 US shops have recorded any sales, about 46% of registrations.
• The ratio swings wildly on the denominator, landing at 80 brands per top creator, 37, or 0.57.
• Only 5,700 US shops cleared $1M in H1 2026, so against 10,000 top creators the serious sellers are outnumbered rather than outnumbering.
• The real scarcity is positional, since a top creator holds perhaps four relationships that matter, giving about 40,000 premium slots.
• Shop count grew 180 times in thirty months, from 4,450 to 803,500, which is why the platform feels crowded even where it is thin.
• We build Cruva, the AI-powered operating system for TikTok Shop affiliate growth, so the brands doing real volume can find the creators who actually want them.

Riley Garcia, who scaled Better Brand past $20M and now runs Attention Economy Club, lays out the problem on the Quick Hits podcast in two numbers.

There are 800,000 brands on the platform, by his count around 400,000 of them active in some way, against only 8,000 to 10,000 creators at L3 and above, and his conclusion is that the arithmetic favours the creator.

Both halves of that hold up against third-party data, which is rarer than it should be for a figure quoted on a podcast.

What the framing hides is that the answer changes completely depending on which shops you agree to count, and at the level most readers of this actually operate, it reverses.

Do the numbers check out?

Closely, and Riley is more accurate than our own earlier reading of him.

Third-party tracking puts 803,500 registered US TikTok Shop stores at the end of 2025, which matches his 800,000 almost exactly.

His "let's call it 400,000 are active somewhat" lands close to the 370,000 that have recorded any sales at all, so the estimate was sound.

Worth flagging a correction of our own here, since an earlier pass of ours put actively selling shops near 216,000 and treated Riley's figure as inflated, and the fuller dataset says he was closer than we were.

The one number carrying real doubt is the creator side, because L3 and above is a platform classification rather than a published statistic, and the 8,000 to 10,000 range comes from operators rather than from TikTok.

What does the ratio actually look like?

Anywhere between 80 to one and roughly one to two, which is a wide enough spread to change what you do on Monday.

Against the shops doing serious volume, top creators outnumber brands rather than the other way round, which is the opposite of how the market is usually described.

That matters because the 803,500 figure includes a very large number of accounts that exist rather than trade, with over half recording zero sales, and those shops are competing for zero attention.

The honest version of the competitive picture is therefore 37 brands per top creator if you are a functioning shop, and something close to parity if you are doing a million a year.

Riley's instinct about incentives stays correct at 37 to one, since that is still a crowded auction, and it simply stops being the apocalyptic picture that 400,000 to 10,000 suggests.

Why does it feel so much worse than 37 to one?

Because the growth rate is the thing people are actually reacting to.

Registered US shops went from 4,450 in mid-2023 to 803,500 by the end of 2025, which is roughly 180 times in thirty months, and few people's intuition keeps up with a curve that steep.

The lived experience matches the feeling rather than the ratio, and a seller on r/TikTokshop describes orders falling from 20 to 30 a day down to 4 to 8 while hunting for a cause in violations rather than in competition.

The other half of the feeling is rejection rather than arithmetic, since a new brand experiences the market through the creators who decline it.

A beauty brand three weeks in told r/TikTokshop that it knew top GMV creators avoid brands they have yet to hear of, and was deliberately loosening its vetting because of it, which is what a tight market feels like from the inside even when the aggregate ratio is manageable.

Where is the scarcity actually located?

In the top four slots of each creator's week, rather than in access generally.

A working creator carries 30 to 40 brands at once, and a small number of those carry most of their output, so treat roughly four relationships per creator as the ones that genuinely matter.

That gives the market about 40,000 premium slots in total, and the competition for them looks very different depending on who you are.

So the squeeze is genuine for the long tail and essentially absent for brands with real volume, which reframes the problem from "win an auction" to "become the kind of shop that stops being in the auction".

That is a slower answer than raising commission, and it is the one the data supports, since a creator choosing between 37 similar offers picks on something other than rate.

What do you do about it?

Riley's answer has two halves, and the second is the one people skip.

The first half is incentives, where he names higher commissions and retainers that make sense for the brand, noting that many creators now ask to be paid upfront and that creators themselves are learning brands make thin margins on this platform.

The second half is sequencing, and he is firm that a brand is poorly served by chasing only L4, L5 and L6 creators out of the gate, because you need data on what works first.

His method is to go broad with samples, gather videos, study which angles perform, and only then hire at the top with a brief that has evidence behind it.

• Go wide first, since a sample sent to a mid-tier creator buys information as well as a video.
• Read the angles rather than the totals, because the hook that works is the thing a senior creator wants to hear about.
• Approach the top with proof, which converts a cold ask into a credible pitch.
• Pay in the shape they want, since upfront fees and retainers now compete with commission.
• Be worth choosing, as a crowded auction is decided on community rather than rate.

That sequence also answers the rejection problem, because the reason top creators avoid a brand they have yet to hear of is risk rather than snobbery, and evidence is what removes risk.

Who actually wins at 37 to one?

The shops that stop looking like the other 36.

Three things separate them, and all three are visible to a creator inside about five minutes.

A record. Reviews, sold units and a category position, which is why the first six months are about accumulating proof rather than chasing scale, and why shops stall at six figures when they skip it.

A reason to post again. A creator's second post is where their economics improve, so a brand that supports repeat posting is worth more per slot, which is the arithmetic behind ten creators posting ten times.

Room to earn. A product where GMV Max still has room pays better than a saturated one at a higher rate, and creators check this before they check what you pay per video.

Little of that is fast, and that is rather the point, since the shops at the top of this market got there by compounding for two years while the registered count multiplied around them.

Count the Shops That Actually Trade

Ignore the 803,500 figure, since more than half of those shops record zero sales and compete for zero attention.

Your real field is the 370,000 that trade, which is 37 brands per top creator, and it narrows further the more volume you do.

Go wide with samples to earn the evidence, then approach the top creators with proof rather than with a rate.

FAQs

How many brands are on TikTok Shop in the US?

About 803,500 stores were registered by the end of 2025, up from 4,450 in mid-2023. Roughly 370,000 of those have recorded any sales, and more than 5,700 crossed $1M in GMV in the first half of 2026.

How many top creators are there on TikTok Shop?

Operators put it at 8,000 to 10,000 creators at L3 and above. That figure comes from people working in the market rather than from a TikTok publication, so treat it as an estimate.

Is it really 800,000 brands chasing 10,000 creators?

Only if you count every registered account. Measured against shops that actually sell it is about 37 brands per top creator, and measured against shops doing over $1M it falls to 0.57, meaning top creators outnumber serious sellers.

Why does TikTok Shop feel so saturated?

Because registered shops grew roughly 180 times in thirty months, and intuition struggles with a curve that steep. New brands also meet the market through the creators who decline them, which feels worse than the ratio.

Why do top creators ignore new brands?

Risk rather than snobbery. A brand with few reviews and little sold is a risky bet for a creator's posting slot, which is why evidence works better than a higher commission rate.

Should I target L4 and L5 creators straight away?

Riley Garcia advises against it. Go broad with samples first to learn which angles convert, then approach senior creators with proof, since a brief backed by data is a far stronger ask.

Does raising commission fix the competition problem?

Partly, and it is the first thing everybody tries. In a field of 37 similar offers the rate stops being a differentiator, so creators decide on evidence, earning room and how the brand treats them.

What is a premium creator slot?

The handful of brand relationships a creator actually prioritises, roughly four out of the 30 to 40 they carry. Across 10,000 top creators that is about 40,000 slots, which is where the real competition sits.